Roland Garros arrives as the women’s tour begins to enter another Golden Age. For over a decade, women’s tennis has had a seeming ‘revolving-door’ of No. 1s and champions, due to the incredible depth of talent on the tour. However, over the past couple of seasons, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina have riven above the rest of tour’s ranks to form a dominant ‘tri-valry’.
The trio have claimed nearly all of 2023’s biggest titles and each have won a title on clay, prior to this year’s edition of Roland Garros. Iga and Aryna split back-to-back encounters to raise the trophies in Stuttgart and Madrid, while Elena emerged victorious in Rome last week. All three appear poised to make deep runs here in Paris.
An interesting wrinkle that adds flavor to this year’s tournament is the fact that the No. 1 ranking is up for contention. This will be the first tournament in which Iga must defend her ranking, since ascending to the WTA’s pole position 61-weeks ago. Last year, she surged to the title in the midst of a 37-match win streak. However, this year, she will be forced to play her matches with a bit of scoreboard pressure in the back of her mind, as she must go one round further than Aryna in order to retain No. 1.
Taking all of these complex dynamics into account, let’s see how the draw stacks up.
First Quarter
The first quarter of the draw is led by our World No. 1. She enters this year’s tournament with some question marks concerning her health. She withdrew from Rome after suffering a thigh injury during her semifinal bought with Elena Rybakina. Assuming that she’s healthy enough to compete, she has a relatively easy draw that should allow her to work her way into the tournament.
That being said, a tough test almost surely awaits her in the fourth round, with Victoria Azarenka, Bianca Andreescu, and Barbora Krejicikova being potential opponents. The last of which, Krejicikova, the 2021 Singles Champion, is particularly noteworthy, as she seems be one of the few players who has Iga’s number as of late. She beat Iga in a 3-set thriller in the final of Ostrava(!!!) at the tail end of last year and repeated the feat in Dubai in February. The question is whether or not she will be able to reach the fourth round, as Barbora has yet to make a deep run in singles in any tournament since her fantastic run in Dubai.
The other half of this section of the draw is led by last year’s runner-up, Coco Gauff, as well as Veronika Kudermetova. Both are solid on this surface and have had above average seasons thus far. However, I ultimately see this section coming down to winner of Swiatek’s fourth round match-up.
Semifinalist Prediction: Iga Swiatek
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw is led by our reigning Wimbledon Champion, Elena Rybakina. I see this section as being quite tricky, as a few players with robust records on clay lurk in her wake.
In her opener, she will surely be challenged by teen phenom, Brenda Fruhvirtova, who qualified for this years tournament by winning 3-matches already. In the third round, she could face to players who rate clay as their favorite surface, in Sara Sorribes Tormo or Shelby Rogers. Finally, a potential fourth round awaits with the flat-hitting Elena Alexandrova or Beatriz Haddad Maia.
The other half of this draw is quite interesting. It is lead by fan-favorite, Ons Jabeur. Ons had an excellent 2022, reaching two major finals. At the beginning of the year, it was expected that Ons too, would solidify her spot at the top of the WTA’s pecking order, alongside Iga, Aryna, and Elena. Instead, this year has turned into somewhat of a disaster for the Tunisian, undergoing knee surgery in February and suffering a calf tear, months later, in Stuttgart. Given her impressive results on grass and harcourt, it is easy to forget that clay is actually Jabeur’s best surface, having won the Junior trophy here by beating Monica Puig in 2011. I see Ons as a future Roland Garros champion, but taking into account the injuries and lack of match play, I see this eight of the draw ripe for an upset.
All things considered, this section, while it may pose a few challenges in the early rounds, is ultimately on Rybakina’s racquet.
Semifinalist Prediction: Elena Rybakina.
Third Quarter
The third quarter of this draw is where things can get spicy. It is lead by World No. 3, Jessica Pegula, and World No. 8, Maria Sakkari. Both players’ rankings are backed solid performances week-in, week-out on the WTA Tour. I would say that these two lead the ‘second tier’ of WTA contenders, who lead by consistency, rather than dominance. They lack a robust portfolio of Top 10 wins or many significant trophies, however, they have been knocking on the door for quite some time.
Over the past three seasons, Jessica has amassed five Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances, only to stumble at that hurdle. Should she wish to break her quarterfinal quivers at Roland Garros, she will have to be sharp from the get-go. She opens against 2022 Australian Open Finalist, Danielle Collins. From there, Camila Giorgi, Elise Mertens, Ludmilla Samsonova, Mayar Sherif, Anastasia Potapova, and 2021 Roland Garros Finalist, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, all lie in her wake. Jessica should be able to tame this motley crew, however, Anastasia Potapova seems ready to spoil the party with a potential upset.
Maria Sakkari has her own Grand Slam hoodoo to overcome as well. In 2021, she faltered in two Grand Slam semifinals in which she played the role of favorite. She opens against of the most dangerous unseeded players in Karolina Muchova. Should she survive that test, several dangerous clay-courters loom in Sara Errani, Leylah Fernandez, Belinda Bencic, Nadia Podoroska, Magda Linette, Clara Tauson, and Irina Camelia-Begu.
This quarter of the draw is the most unpredictable. I am going to gamble and pick Potapova to make a major breakthrough.
Semifinalist Prediction: Anastasia Potapova
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw is led by Aryna Sabalenka, our current front-runner for the No. 1 ranking. The draw gods have been kind to Aryna, in her quest for No. 1 and her second major title. Through the quarterfinals, her toughest test comes in the form of Sloane Stephens, 2017 US Open Champion and 2018 French Open Finalist. Sloane has had inconsistent form as of late making deep runs at smaller, WTA events while also suffering a string of early losses at larger tour events.
Beyond her fourth round encounter with Stephens, there is an impressive cadre of talented players that Aryna could face-off against in the quarterfinals, including 2017 Champion, Jelena Ostapenko, World No. 9 Daria Kasatkina, and former World. No. 3, Elina Svitolina. Svitolina recently returned to the tour after giving birth to her first child and emerged victorious in Strasbourg just last week. World No. 5, Carolina Garcia, also lies in this section of the draw. However, the frenchwoman has yet to find a glimmer of the form that propelled her back into the Top 5 late last year.
Semifinalist Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka
Semifinal Predictions:
Iga Swiatek def. Elena Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka def. Anastasia Potapova
Final Prediction:
Aryna Sabalenka def. Iga Swiatek