We are a week late to the party in terms of previewing the draw and making predictions. But, after an eventful first week of play, the women’s singles draw remains as compelling and unpredictable as ever. A few perennial contenders still stand while a few revelations have emerged to spoil the party as fourth round play begins on Sunday.
First Quarter
The top half of the draw is led by World No. 1 and recent Wimbledon Champion, Ash Barty, who aims to become the first Australian to win the Aussie Open since the ’70s. When the draw was announced, the prospect of a blockbuster fourth round encounter against Naomi Osaka, defending champion and the world’s best hardcourt player, left the tennis many tennis prognosticator’s mouths watering. However, Amanda Anisimova’s emphatic performance on Friday night spoiled the party.
Anisimova, now under the guidance of Darren Cahill, has probably been the biggest revelation of the Australian Swing. She won the title two weeks ago in Melbourne beating the likes of Daria Kasatkina, Sorana Cirstea, and Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Her match versus Barty will be a rematch of their see-saw 2019 Roland Garros semifinal, a match that Anisimova led by a set and 3-0 before Barty bounced back. Ultimately that match, and the ensuing Roland Garros title, set the stage for Barty’s rise & reign as World No. 1. Anisimova has one of the most solid backhands in the game; it will be interesting to see how well it holds up when Barty drags Anisimova wide using her slice.
The bottom half of this section contains two other noteworthy contenders: Maria Sakkari & Jessica Pegula. The Greek had a breakout 2021––reaching the semifinals of two Grand Slams and breaking into the Top 10. Jessica Pegula’s 2021 was also a career-best; she reached her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open and ended the year in the Top 15 of the Race to Guadalajara rankings. Sakkari leads the head-to-head 2-0, but their last encounter in Miami ended 8-6 in a final set tiebreak.
While Anisimova, Sakkari, and Pegula may all be knocking on the door, at the end of the day, Barty has proven her mettle as World No. 1. Look for the Australian to reach semifinals.
Semifinalist Prediction: Ash Barty
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw is a true dogfight. This section is led by World No. 3, Barbora Krejcikova. After her unprecedented singles & doubles victories at 2021 Roland Garros, the Czech has proven herself to be much more than a one-slam wonder. Since raising the trophies on the terre battue, she’s reached the quarterfinals of the US Open, won a title on home soil in Prague, and reached the final last week in Adelaide. Quite honestly, Krejcikova’s late-blooming, yet meteoric rise reminds me of another (former) Roland Garros Champion: Francesca Schiavone. Schiavone was only the seventeenth seed during her cinderalla run in 2010, but leveraged the experience to propel her into back-to-back Top 10 seasons and notable victories on all surfaces.
Slated to face the Czech is two-time Australian Open Champion and former World No. 1, Victoria Azarenka. This year is the ten year anniversary of the first of those title run and it seems to have inspired peak-performance from the Belarusian. In the third round, she totally dismantled Elina Svitolina, surrendering only two games in the process. In the first week of the season, she straight-setted Paula Badosa, but ended the week by suffering an injury during her quarterfinal match against Iga Swiatek. Let’s hope she’s fully recovered because Krejcikova’s retrieving skills will certainly test any lingering niggles that Vika may still be feeling.
The bottom half of this section pits two of the hardest-hitting players on the women’s tour: Paula Badosa & Madison Keys. Interestingly enough, both women have already won titles this Australian swing, with the former raising the title in Sydney and the latter emerging victorious in Adelaide. Badosa looks to be making up for lost time in Australia after having spent last year’s campaign in lockdown, due COVID. However, after watching her run in Adelaide last week, Madison Keys seems to be unplayable at the moment.
Semifinalist Prediction: Madison Keys
Third Quarter
The third quarter of the draw has been riddled with quite a few remarkable upsets. Annett Kontaveit, who ended 2021 with four titles, a 48-17 records, and a surge into the Top 10, was trounced by Danish upstart, Clara Tauson. Tauson would later fall to Danielle Collins in a titanic third round match, which may be the match-of-the-tournament thus far. While Collins initially led 4-2, Tauson would ultimately raise her game to new heights and built a 6-4, 4-2 lead. However, Collins weathered Tauson’s fourteen-game surge and turned the tables in her favor. The American plays the always consistent Elise Mertens in the fourth round, but I expect the fiery American to will herself into the quarterfinals.
Simona Halep leads the bottom half of this section. The Romanian is in the midst of recuperating after an injury-marred 2021 campaign that saw her seven-year-long Top 10 streak come to an end. However, she ended 2021 with momentum, making a final and two-semis. She has carried this momentum into 2022, only dropping a set en route to the title in Melbourne two weeks ago. The Simona of New has been quite greedy, dropping only 12-games en route to the fourth round of the year’s first major, and appears to be at peak confidence. Her next opponent is an inspired Alizé Cornet, who is on the cusp of breaking the record for most consecutive major appearances, however, the Romanian has never really been troubled by the Frenchwoman’s game.
Should Halep and Collins face off in the Quarters, it will be rematch of their controversial Montreal epic and, I expect, Simona is out for revenge.
Semifinalist Prediction: Simona Halep
Fourth Quarter
To put it bluntly, the final section of the draw is nothing to write home about. World No. 2, Aryna Sabalenka leads this section, but has been suffering service yips as of late. While she seemed to have settled within her third-round match against former French Open finalist, Marketa Vondrousova, she still committed (only) ten double faults (which she claims to be happy with). Even if she may have righted the ship for the moment, as the pressure mounts in these later rounds, I expect the cracks to reappear. She faces off against giant-killer Kaia Kanepi in the fourth round who needs a trip to the Last Eight in Melbourne Park to complete a Grand Slam of quarterfinal appearances.
I think the biggest contender in this section is Iga Swiatek, who appears to be close to peak form. She plays veteran Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round and looks poised to reach the semifinals unscathed
Semifinalist Prediction: Iga Swiatek
Semifinal Predictions:
Barty d. Keys
Halep d. Swiatek
Final Prediction:
Halep d. Barty